This dashboard tracks various markets and events connected to political outcomes. Click a panel to expand or collapse it. All graphs have interaction capabilities including the ability to filter out a series by clicking on the corresponding legend item. Hover over (or tap on mobile) a line to see the data point and corresponding information. Within each panel are more details surrounding the visuals and interaction capabilities.
Toggle between “Snapshot” and “All History” views to see candidate odds to be next POTUS. See below
the dashboard for definitions and details.
- This panel is made by doing an analysis of Bovada Sports Book election market data. It shows candidate odds to be next President. Data is retrieved multiple times daily (~4x/day).
- By default, the panel is on “Snapshot View” which shows three month history line graphs of the top 3 candidates, as well as the most recent details below them in table form.
- To view a complete comparative history, click the “Show All History” button at the top left of the graphs. This button is used to toggle between views.
- On the comparative history panel, use the legend items to filter out candidates by clicking on them. When you click a legend item, it will toggle the corresponding line (hidden/not hidden). You can also change the units of the Y-Axis (see definitions below) or choose the number of candidates shown on the graph by utilizing the associated dropdowns on the top of the chart.
-
The Y-Axis shows the probability (%) of the candidate to be next
POTUS, as set by the sports book. Theoretically, this isn’t just
the sports book’s feeling of
the probability of each
candidate, but the betting market’s overall judgment,
as betters in the market move the
price (price discovery). The calculation method of the Y-Axis can be changed on
the comparative history panel and
will be set by default on the snapshot view to show the best measure. The definitions
are below.
- Implied Probability: The implied probability calculated from the odds offered at the sports book. The implied probability simply takes the odds offered at the sports book (e.g. +300 american odds or 3/1) and converts them to a % probability. This unit may be best to use when the race is early and the sports book has a large theoretical hold while offering many long shot candidates.
- Adjusted Probability: This is an adjustment made to the implied probability after taking into account the theoretical hold of the futures market. Simply put, it is vig free probabilities. This option may be best to use when the race is late and the theoretical hold on the market has tightened. When using this option, the probability of all candidates across the entire market will sum up to 100% (note: the entire market may not be shown in one view depending on current view and chart settings). Early in the race, Bovada can offer over 80 candidates, and applying adjusted probability calculations on this market can lead to misleading probabilities, as the sports book is charging (read as overcharging) people on every longshot candidate, which creates a very high theoretical hold.
- American Odds: This is the American odds offered by sports book. There is no calculation involved in showing this number. This option may be best to use if you are used to gambling on futures or if you want to visually understand the relationship between american odds, implied probabilities, and adjusted probabilities taking into account theoretical hold.
- For more about this chart, check the FAQ Panel on this page.
Toggle between “Snapshot” and “All History” views to see party odds to be next POTUS. See below
the dashboard for definitions and details.
- This panel is made by doing an analysis of Bovada Sports Book election market data. It shows the party odds to yield the next President. Data is retrieved multiple times daily (~4x/day).
- By default, the panel is on “Snapshot View” which shows three month history line graphs of the top 3 parties, as well as the most recent details below them in table form.
- To view a complete comparative history, click the “Show All History” button at the top left of the graphs. This button is used to toggle between views.
- On the comparative history panel, use the legend items to filter out parties by clicking on them. When you click a legend item, it will toggle the corresponding line (hidden/not hidden). You can also change the units of the Y-Axis (see definitions below) or choose the number of parties shown on the graph by utilizing the associated dropdowns on the top of the chart.
-
The Y-Axis shows the probability (%) of the party to yield the next
POTUS, as set by the sports book. Theoretically, this isn’t just
the sports book’s feeling of
the probability of each
party, but the betting market’s overall judgment,
as betters in the market move the
price (price discovery). The calculation method of the Y-Axis can be changed on
the comparative history panel and
will be set by default on the snapshot view to show the best measure. The definitions
are below.
- Implied Probability: The implied probability calculated from the odds offered at the sports book. The implied probability simply takes the odds offered at the sports book (e.g. +300 american odds or 3/1) and converts them to a % probability. This unit may be best to use when the race is early and the sports book has a large theoretical hold while offering many long shot offerings. For party markets, Adjusted Probability is normally preferred.
- Adjusted Probability: This is an adjustment made to the implied probability after taking into account the theoretical hold of the futures market. Simply put, it is vig free probabilities. This option may be best to use when the race is late and the theoretical hold on the market has tightened, or on markets with few offerings, like parties. When using this option, the probability of all parties across the entire market will sum up to 100% (note: the entire market may not be shown in one view depending on current view and chart settings).
- American Odds: This is the American odds offered by sports book. There is no calculation involved in showing this number. This option may be best to use if you are used to gambling on futures or if you want to visually understand the relationship between american odds, implied probabilities, and adjusted probabilities taking into account theoretical hold.
- For more about this chart, check the FAQ Panel on this page.
Disclaimer
The accuracy of this data (and all data on this website) is not guaranteed. Data collected, analyzed, and shown anywhere on this site can have errors. All data and analysis shown on this site are not intended to be used toward any financial decisions.What data is used for this dashboard?
Bovada Election Odds: Politics Page
What technology is used for this dashboard?
Backend for data collection & analysis: Python
General Frontend Technologies: Javascript and jQuery
Charting library (POTUS comparative history): Chart.js
Charting library (POTUS snapshot view): ApexCharts.js
Styling libraries: Bootstrap
Why are the Bovada panel numbers not exactly matching what I see at Bovada?
I attempt to update the data on this dashboard 4x per day (12am, 6am, Noon, and 6pm eastern time). It is possible that Bovada odds change between these updates or that my dashboard fails to get the data at one of these times.
Additional Questions or Feature Requests
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